Recent geopolitical events in the Horn of Africa have been characterized by a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland on January 1, sparking diplomatic tensions with Somalia. The MoU proposes granting Ethiopia a 20-kilometer coastal land in Somaliland for a military naval base and a commercial port, in exchange for Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland’s independence. This development has fueled historical hostilities and anxieties between Somalia and Ethiopia, with Somalia accusing Ethiopia of undermining its territorial sovereignty and unity.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, facing internal challenges including ethnic and rebel violence, has embraced rhetoric asserting Ethiopia’s “historical right” to access the sea. The MoU with Somaliland is seen as a strategic move to divert attention from domestic issues, mobilizing nationalistic sentiments to consolidate Abiy Ahmed’s support base. However, critics argue that behind the facade of regional power projection, Ethiopia is entangled in internal conflicts, notably the genocidal civil war in Tigray that has claimed the lives of millions.
The signing of the MoU has significant implications for the stability of the Horn of Africa, an already volatile region marred by violence, instability, famines, and terrorism. While Ethiopia insists that the deal is commercial and aims to stabilize both countries economically, it has raised concerns about violations of international laws, particularly those safeguarding national sovereignty and borders. The United Nations, the African Union, the Arab League, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States swiftly rejected the deal, reaffirming support for Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Somaliland, the other signatory to the MoU, has been seeking international recognition for its claimed independence for three decades without success. Initially celebrated for its political stability and democracy compared to the rest of Somalia, Somaliland’s aspirations for recognition have faced challenges due to prolonged election delays and violence in Las Anod. The MoU with Ethiopia is seen as a lifeline for Somaliland’s political elites, but it also raises concerns about potential violent fragmentation as political unrest brews in regions like Awdal.
The geopolitical events unfold against the backdrop of the Horn of Africa’s strategic significance in global trade, given its proximity to the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Instability in the region could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy, making it imperative for regional actors to prioritize diplomatic solutions. The article underscores the need for peaceful coexistence and economic cooperation, suggesting that Ethiopia could explore commercial deals with Somalia, similar to its arrangements with Djibouti, to access and use its ports.
However, the prevailing rhetoric and actions of Ethiopia, with its imperialistic ambitions and assertion of a “historical right” to access the sea, have ignited counter-nationalistic sentiments in neighboring countries like Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea. Abiy Ahmed’s move has indirectly revived the Greater Somalia (Soomaaliweyn) cause, leading to heightened tensions in the political, social, and media spheres among Somalis.
The article concludes by cautioning against the potential for violent destabilization in the Horn of Africa if reason does not prevail. While acknowledging the region’s potential for peace, integration, and economic prosperity, it emphasizes the importance of rejecting hegemonic ambitions and embracing cooperative solutions. The call for all countries in the region to tap into the geo-strategic resource collectively and benefit mutually underscores the urgency of addressing the current geopolitical tensions through dialogue and diplomacy.
The unfolding geopolitical events in the Horn of Africa also underscore the intricate balance between national interests and regional stability. Ethiopia’s pursuit of a military deal with Somaliland, while framed as a commercial agreement, hints at deeper geopolitical ambitions. The loss of access to the Red Sea in 1993, following Eritrea’s independence, left Ethiopia landlocked and fuelled Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rhetoric about a “historical right” to sea access.
However, the internal challenges, marked by ethnic and rebel violence, have posed significant obstacles to Ethiopia’s quest for regional dominance. As Ethiopia seeks to project power and divert attention from internal crises, the region faces a delicate dance between historical aspirations, nationalistic sentiments, and the imperative for collaborative regional solutions. The unfolding narrative in the Horn of Africa prompts a reflection on the delicate interplay between domestic politics, historical legacies, and the broader geopolitical landscape, with potential ramifications for both regional and global stability.
Image Credit: Yusuf Yassir/Unsplash
