A decision to cut troop numbers in the African Union Transition in Somalia force (ATMIS) has provoked criticism from a senior Somali official, who fears the move could pave the way for al-Shabab militants to reclaim lost territories.
Deputy President of Jubaland, Mohamud Sayid Aden, where Kenyan and Ethiopian soldiers are stationed, voiced concern to VOA Somali, stating that securing areas to be abandoned by AU soldiers would be a “difficult” task for the Somali forces.
“There is going to be a danger from there,” Mr. Aden warned. “The enemy is going to gain an advantage. Civilians who depended on the Somali and ATMIS forces may face retaliation from al-Shabab militants.”
Why ATMIS is leaving
Last week, the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia relinquished control of six military bases to Somali forces and closed down a seventh. The AU aims to gradually trim troop numbers until the mission wraps up in December 2024.
The current drawdown involves 2,000 soldiers, 400 from each of the five troop-contributing countries – Burundi, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, and Uganda, reducing the force size to 16,586. By the end of September, in agreement with the Somali government, the AU is slated to withdraw a further 3,000 troops.
“It’s a plan not well-thought out, it’s hasty,” said Mr. Aden, calling for a pause and review of the drawdown plan.
Yet, other Somali officials have expressed differing views. Yasin Abdullahi Mohamud, aka Farey, a member of parliament and former director of the National Intelligence and Security Agency, dismissed the notion that the drawdown decision was rushed.
“It’s the right time for the forces to leave,” he said. “The national armed forces must assume the mantle of security.”
Mohamud noted that ATMIS forces had not been significantly involved in military operations against al-Shabab over the past year, suggesting that it is time for Somali forces to rise to the challenge.
As the AU troop reduction progresses, the federal government is preparing to resume military operations against al-Shabab, which were disrupted by rains and violent militant attacks. The second phase of operations, named the “Black Lion”, involving troops from neighbouring Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Kenya, is also being prepared.
The troop reduction coincides with an upsurge in al-Shabab attacks both in Somalia and neighbouring Kenya. The Islamist extremist group, which has been battling for control of Somalia since 2007, launched fatal attacks in late May on AU and Somali forces in the towns of Bulo Marer and Masagaway, resulting in the death of numerous soldiers.
Meanwhile, al-Shabab has escalated its attacks in Kenya, with as many as 15 incidents reported in the coastal Lamu and Northeastern regions, with some causing fatalities among soldiers and civilians.
Somali officials argue that the group’s tactics aim to secure the corridor between Somalia and Kenya, utilised by its militias to launch attacks on either side of the border. Some officials, including Aden, suggest that the attacks in Kenya imply that al-Shabab intends to continue its fight inside Kenya, should they be defeated in Somalia.
“Yes, they could continue the war in Kenya if they are defeated in Somalia,” he said.
Image Credit: Feisal Omar/Reuters
