The ongoing standoff between West African leaders and the military junta in Niger reaches a crucial turning point, as the seven-day ultimatum issued by regional bloc Ecowas draws to a close. President Mohamed Bazoum’s reinstatement hangs in the balance as both sides face critical decisions.
Last Sunday, Ecowas, under the leadership of Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, issued a stern warning to the junta, stating that failure to restore constitutional order within a week could result in the use of force. The bloc has already imposed sanctions on the coup leaders and cut off electricity supplies from Nigeria, leading to border closures and a halt in goods reaching the land-locked nation through its ports.
With tensions escalating on political, diplomatic, and military fronts, the approaching deadline poses questions about the potential outcomes.
One option for Ecowas leaders is to extend the deadline, giving the diplomatic efforts more time to yield results. While this move risks being perceived as a climbdown, it could provide an opportunity for the heads of state to save face by emphasizing progress in ongoing negotiations. However, current mediation efforts by Ecowas have shown little success, with a delegation that travelled to Niger on Thursday returning with limited progress to report.
Meanwhile, the junta has intensified its rhetoric against the West and Ecowas. Diplomatic ties have been severed with Nigeria, Togo, the US, and France. In addition, military agreements with France, which allow the former colonial power to base troops in the country, have been cancelled. President Bazoum, held captive by the military, has openly appealed for support from the US and the international community to restore constitutional order, describing himself as a “hostage” in an article published in the Washington Post.
To defuse tensions and find common ground, the junta and Ecowas could potentially agree on a timetable for the return to democratic rule. This agreement may include the release of President Bazoum and other political detainees, allowing for continued negotiations and the possibility of buying more time. The demand for the release of detained political figures has been a key point of contention for those who condemn the coup within Africa and beyond.
In neighbouring Sahel countries, Mali and Burkina Faso, Ecowas has recently approved democratic transitions following military takeovers. However, these negotiations have been fraught with challenges, with election deadlines continuously pushed back, and the actual transfer of power still uncertain. The cautionary example of Sudan, which experienced a bitter conflict between rival military leaders following a coup, serves as a reminder of the risks involved in transitioning to democracy.
While Ecowas did not explicitly state that force would be used if President Bazoum were not reinstated, it did leave the option open. Nigerian officials have referred to it as a “last resort,” with President Tinubu indicating the potential for military intervention to enforce compliance by the junta if they remain unyielding. Ecowas has previously used military force to restore constitutional order, as seen in The Gambia in 2017 when former President Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after losing an election.
However, deploying troops in Niger would pose a greater challenge compared to The Gambia. As the largest country in West Africa, Niger’s geography presents logistical complexities. Additionally, Nigeria, the regional power driving efforts to reinstate President Bazoum, faces its own security challenges at home, making diverting a significant portion of its army to Niger a risky gamble. Furthermore, Mali and Burkina Faso have warned that military intervention in Niger would be viewed as a “declaration of war,” prompting them to defend their fellow coup leaders. The situation could potentially escalate into a full-scale regional conflict if the Niger population resists foreign intervention, although the population’s response remains uncertain. Historical and ethnic ties between Nigeria and Niger, with shared language ties, may make some Nigerian troops hesitant to engage in hostilities.
Calls for restraint and continued dialogue have come from neighbouring Algeria, China, and Russia. However, Ecowas defense chiefs, after a three-day meeting in Abuja, have developed a comprehensive plan for military intervention for regional leaders to consider. Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Benin have expressed willingness to send troops into Niger if Ecowas decides on such action. Nigeria alone boasts around 135,000 active troops, according to the Global Fire Power index, whereas Niger has approximately 10,000 personnel. Nevertheless, an invasion would not be a straightforward task.
While a peaceful resolution remains the preferred outcome for all parties, Ecowas is eager to demonstrate its determination, following a series of coups in the region over the past three years.
In this delicate and high-stakes situation, the outcome of the looming deadline will decide Niger’s political future and potentially have far-reaching implications for regional stability in West Africa.
Image Credit: ORTN/Reuters
