In the last two decades, Turkey, under the leadership of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), has undergone a remarkable transformation, emerging as a formidable global player with influential stakes across Africa, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Asia, and Europe. This seismic shift in Turkish foreign policy, spearheaded by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has strategically positioned Ankara as a diplomatic, economic, and military force on the world stage. This opinion piece delves into Turkey’s evolving grand strategy, examining its multifaceted approach and growing impact on the international arena.
Diplomatic Outreach and Regional Realignment
Turkey’s diplomatic overtures in the Eastern Mediterranean showcase its commitment to reshaping regional dynamics. Ankara’s emphasis on preventing Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, particularly through its opposition to the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG), aligns with its broader counterterrorism goals. Simultaneously, Turkey seeks to mobilize its NATO allies against the PYD/YPG, reflecting its assertiveness in pursuing national security objectives.
However, Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean policy extends beyond security concerns. Ankara aims to reintegrate itself into a shifting regional order, navigating challenges stemming from its confrontational foreign policy post-Arab uprisings in 2011. The exclusion from the EastMed Gas Forum and increased cooperation among Greece, Cyprus, France, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates necessitated a diplomatic pivot. Turkey’s recent charm offensive, signing cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, exemplifies its proactive efforts to mend ties and reposition itself in the global landscape.
Black Sea Opportunities and Transcontinental Connectivity
The strategic cooperation agreement signed in 2023 among Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Northern Cyprus underscores Ankara’s commitment to fostering regional alliances. Turkey’s engagement with the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and its focus on transcontinental connectivity highlight a proactive approach to regional cooperation. The OTS, emerging from Turkic-speaking states, provides Turkey with a platform to enhance its influence and strengthen ties with Central Asian countries, reflecting its keen interest in shared linguistic and cultural affinities.
The geopolitical uncertainties triggered by Russia’s war against Ukraine and the European efforts to decrease energy dependency on Moscow have presented Turkey with a window of opportunity. By signing agreements for gas deliveries with Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, Turkey positions itself as a crucial player in Europe’s energy supply and security. However, perceptions that Turkey is helping Moscow circumvent sanctions pose challenges to its credibility within Western alliances.
Strategic Expansion into Africa
Africa has become a focal point of Turkey’s foreign policy, driven by economic interests, business opportunities, and a desire to confront Western influence. Turkey’s trade volume with African countries has surged from $5.4 billion in 2003 to $34.5 billion in 2021, with a notable presence in North African countries. Turkish construction companies, traditionally active in Algeria and Libya, are now expanding their footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa. The economic dimension is complemented by an upswing in defence exports to African nations, reinforcing Turkey’s economic relations in the region.
Turkey’s policy in Africa also reflects a broader vision of global influence. Ankara positions itself as a defender of the globally disenfranchised, emphasizing the principle that “African issues require African solutions.” This rhetoric not only aligns with Ankara’s criticism of Western colonialism but also establishes Turkey as a distinctive actor in international relations. The recent coup in Niger saw Turkey condemning it as a response to France’s years-long oppression, showcasing Ankara’s commitment to developing positive relations with African nations.
Challenges and Aspirations
While Turkey’s global ambitions are evident, challenges persist. The delicate balance between its goals and actual capacity, coupled with economic dependencies and fragile relations with Western allies, presents constraints. Overt confrontation with Western allies may enhance Turkey’s soft power in its immediate neighborhood, but it risks weakening credibility.
Despite these challenges, Turkey remains strategically positioned in a multipolar world. Geographical proximity, NATO membership, and economic connectivity contribute to its leverage in international relations. The emerging multipolar disorder, marked by the US retreat from global dominance and the EU’s limited capacity, grants Turkey room for manoeuvre. As a significant player, Turkey’s continued engagement with the EU should prioritize managing disagreements and establishing common rules for practical cooperation in trade, investments, migration, and defence.
In conclusion, Turkey’s assertive foreign policy under the AKP has propelled it into the ranks of global players with substantial influence across continents. As Ankara navigates complex regional dynamics, it remains poised to harness its diplomatic, economic, and military capabilities to shape the evolving landscape of international relations.
