In the span of recent years, coups in West Africa and its neighbouring regions have reshaped the political landscapes of several nations, notably Gabon, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali. The undercurrents leading to these political upheavals, though, are diverse, and it’s essential to discern these variations to grasp the full spectrum of coups in West Africa.
The Anatomy of Recent Coups
The latest coup in the Central African nation of Gabon stands in sharp contrast to the coups in West Africa’s Sahel region. While coups often draw from similar triggers, the political climate in Gabon preceding the coup differs considerably from other recent episodes in West Africa. Unlike Mali and Burkina Faso, which contend with serious security threats like Islamist terror, Gabon lacked a pressing security justification for its coup. The deposed President Ali Bongo belonged to a political dynasty that had monopolized Gabon’s leadership for four decades. In comparison, nations like Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali had all taken steps towards democratization within the same timeframe.
Gen. Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, alongside other coup leaders from Gabon’s presidential guard, capitalized on the Bongo family’s legacy of corruption and questionable election results. The family, benefiting immensely from Gabon’s oil riches, failed to funnel these resources into essential state institutions. Instead, they stockpiled wealth, leaving a significant portion of the population impoverished.
Varied Triggers, Different Landscapes
Coups in West Africa, while frequent in occurrence lately, are not forged from the same mold. Each coup is a unique manifestation of underlying socio-political tensions specific to its host nation. As global citizens, it’s crucial to probe beyond fleeting Twitter trends or news flashes, delving deeper into the mechanics of these coups. Such understanding affords a panoramic view not only of individual nations but also of the broader geopolitical context.
The causative factors behind coups are multifaceted. Historical legacies, foreign interventions, economic realities, and the politicization of the military are all significant determinants. Research by political scientists Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne unveils that between 1950 and January 2022, the globe witnessed 486 coup attempts. Africa topped the charts with 214 attempts, closely followed by Latin America. Both these regions grapple with the remnants of colonialism, inequality, and were Cold War-era battlegrounds.
The Sahel isn’t the sole domain of coups, as events like the insurrection on January 6, 2021, in the United States demonstrate. Even nations boasting robust democratic frameworks aren’t immune to such political tremors.
Tracking the Resurgence of Coups in West Africa
Historically, coups in West Africa were commonplace in the post-independence era. However, a phase of democratic stability ensued, curbing the frequency of such events. But recent years, particularly 2021 and 2022, have seen a resurgence of coups in West Africa, prompting concerns from international bodies like the African Union.
Examining statistics, between 1960 and 2000, Africa averaged about four coup attempts annually. Following 2000, a decline in military interventions was noticeable, with only one coup reported in 2020 in Mali. But 2021 witnessed a surge, with five nations, including Chad, Mali, Guinea, Sudan, and Niger, experiencing military disruptions.
Countries like Sudan and Burkina Faso, with 17 and 10 coup attempts respectively, have been notably volatile. Conversely, Nigeria, after grappling with coups post-independence, has seen a democratic transition of power since 1999.
Final thoughts
Deciphering the trajectory of coups in West Africa requires a nuanced understanding of individual nations and the broader regional context. While the immediate future remains unpredictable, discerning patterns from the past can offer insights, ensuring preparedness and shaping international responses. One pressing question looms large: amidst this flurry of coups in West Africa, which nation might be next?
Image Credit: ORTN/Reuters
