In the 10 months since the eruption of civil war in Sudan in April 2023, the Sudan Armed Forces have found themselves embroiled in a precarious battle against the Rapid Support Forces, a formidable paramilitary group. Originating from a breakdown in relations within Sudan’s security apparatus, the conflict quickly spiraled beyond the capital, Khartoum, resulting in a humanitarian crisis that continues to unfold.
Recent developments have seen the Sudan Armed Forces facing repeated setbacks at the hands of the Rapid Support Forces. Struggling to regain control over much of Khartoum, the army has witnessed the loss of vast territories, including Darfur and portions of South Kordofan in the west. The situation escalated further with the Rapid Support Forces making significant advances into central and eastern Sudan since December 2023, culminating in the collapse of defenses in Wad Medani, a major city.
This shift in power dynamics has raised concerns among regional decision-makers about the potential ascension of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as “Hemedti,” the leader of the Rapid Support Forces, as Sudan’s new strongman. The success of the Rapid Support Forces can be attributed to their efficient logistics management, tactical prowess, and support from the United Arab Emirates via neighboring Chad.
However, the Sudan Armed Forces’ struggle goes beyond military setbacks; it reflects both military and political miscalculations that have heightened the risk of disintegration and the collapse of the Sudanese state. While the ongoing civil war serves as a trigger, it is not the root cause.
Examining Sudan’s turbulent political transition, it becomes apparent that the Sudan Armed Forces, once a mighty institution, has made errors in navigating revolution and democratization efforts. The institution’s autonomy, history, and enduring interests have fueled competition with other security organs, such as intelligence services and paramilitary militias.
The Sudan Armed Forces, with a storied history of overthrowing civilian governments, sought to reclaim preeminence after the collapse of the previous regime in 2019. However, the military’s trajectory took an unexpected turn, leading to the current crisis.
The military-Islamist regime, under Omar Al-Bashir, witnessed a pattern where the military strongman at the helm began to distrust those who aided in his rise to power. Al-Bashir, relying on the National Intelligence and Security Service and the Rapid Support Forces, weakened the army’s influence to prevent a coup or alliance with civilian opposition.
The 2019 revolution saw the Sudan Armed Forces abandoning Al-Bashir and choosing Abdelfatah El-Burhan as the new leader. However, Burhan’s attempts to position the military as an indispensable partner for civilians faltered, culminating in the October 2021 coup against the transitional civilian-military government.
Burhan’s incoherent military strategy and diplomatic tactics since the outbreak of the civil war in April 2023 have had disastrous consequences. With the Sudan Armed Forces re-embracing Islamist networks, including former ministers Ali Karti and Usama Abdallah, the institution faces internal divisions and challenges in portraying itself as a symbol of Sudanese statehood.
In contrast, Hemedti has been successful in regional diplomacy, issuing a “road map” for peace with former prime minister Hamdok and excluding former regime constituencies. As the Sudan Armed Forces grapple with contradictions and internal distrust, Sudan teeters on the edge of an abyss, with the potential to drag the military down with it. The humanitarian crisis continues to escalate, demanding urgent international attention and intervention to prevent further suffering in the war-torn nation.
The escalating crisis in Sudan has not only captured regional attention but has become a focal point for global powers with vested interests in the region. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key supporter of the Rapid Support Forces, has played a significant role by providing logistical support and reinforcing its influence through neighboring Chad. This strategic backing aligns with the UAE’s broader geopolitical ambitions in the Horn of Africa.
Additionally, Russia has emerged as a player, seeking to expand its influence in the region by engaging with various Sudanese factions. On the other hand, Iran, with historical ties to Sudan, is closely monitoring developments, considering its geopolitical interests and potential impact on the balance of power in the Middle East.
Western nations, particularly the United States and European countries, closely observe the unfolding crisis, grappling with the complexities of choosing the right partners to support amid the multifaceted political and military landscape in Sudan. The intersection of these international interests adds a layer of complexity to the Sudanese conflict, further intensifying the urgency for diplomatic efforts to mitigate the humanitarian crisis and prevent the complete unravelling of the Sudanese state.
Image Credit: Maheen S/AP
